Millennials are people born between 1981 and 1996. They are now the largest voting group in the United States, so who they support is crucial in any election. Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, Trump cut his lead over Democrats among voters aged 30 to 44 from 12 points to 3 points.
This is a significant improvement for him. However, his support from millennials began to decline gradually after he took office for a second term. But a new poll recently suggests that the decline has been reversed and his support is now slowly starting to rise again.
Why this matters
Voters aged 29 to 44, especially millennials, are a very important group in American politics. If this group’s support starts to rise again, Trump’s approval rating will be stable. Although this group is largely anti-Trump due to issues such as the economy and immigration, and they are usually Democrats, some of them could back Trump by supporting him politically and gain a foothold in the 2026 midterm elections and beyond. So this shift in support is important for him.
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Trump approval rating among millennials rises again
A new YouGov and The Economist poll conducted from May 9 to 12 found that Trump’s approval rating among millennials has risen by 8 percentage points compared to April. While only 38 percent supported Trump in April, it rose to 46 percent in May.
Considering that the same group had 43 percent support in March, the estimate shows that the decline seen in April has reversed. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points, meaning that while these numbers are subject to small fluctuations, it does suggest that Trump’s support for May was significant.
Trump support among younger voters has fallen significantly
Trump’s support among young voters aged 18 to 29 has fallen significantly in recent months. While Trump won 47 percent of the vote in this group in the 2024 election, that support has now fallen to 35 percent. At the same time, the number of those who disapprove of him has risen to 56 percent. In March, the numbers have worsened, from 44 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. This suggests that Trump’s trust in young voters is steadily declining.
Trump’s support among older voters
Voters aged 45 to 64, and those over 65, have continued to support Trump at a steady rate. Among those aged 45 to 64, Trump was supported by 48% in the last poll. This is down slightly to 47% in the new poll, but it is not a big change.
Similarly, Trump’s approval rating among those over 65 is unchanged at 45%. This shows that his support among older people is stable, and they are generally Republicans. This kind of stable support has been a reliable political base for Trump.
Economic Background and Approval Status
The “Liberation Day” tariffs that Trump implemented in April and the resulting market crash and economic panic caused his approval ratings to drop. But some important polls released in May show that the decline is now over and Trump’s approval is starting to rise again.
For example, figures released by Newsweek show Trump’s approval rating at 46%, up 2 points from 44% last week. Similarly, a poll conducted by TIPP Insights from April 30 to May 2 found that 42% of Americans support Trump, while 47% disapprove. This gives him a net approval rating of -5, a slight improvement from -7 at the beginning of April.
Furthermore, in a YouGov poll conducted from May 6 to 8, Trump’s approval rating fell from 42% to 50%, while disapproval fell from 52%. Another poll conducted by YouGov and The Economist found that Trump’s approval rating rose by 1 point to 43%, while disapproval remained stable at 52%.
A Quantus Insights poll conducted from May 5 to 7 also found little change in Trump’s approval or disapproval ratings. This suggests that his approval rating has now reached a plateau, and it is time to watch whether it will rise or fall in the future.
Expert’s view on younger voters
Lucas Walsh, a youth politics expert at Monash University in Australia, explains the main reasons for Trump’s decline in support among younger voters. They generally make their political decisions based on the main issues they face especially the economy and jobs that affect their daily lives, he says.
Millennials, a younger generation of voters, are not fixed in their views, but are a group that is always changing and unpredictable politically. After the failure of the Democratic nomination led by Kamala Harris, the lack of a solid alternative leadership in the party may also be a source of confusion for young people.
While Trump has sometimes attracted attention from younger people, his actions are varied and seemingly random, making it impossible to predict with certainty. In this case, voter positions are always changing. Walsh describes it as a roller coaster ride — no one can predict when and what will happen.
What could happen next
Trump’s approval rating among millennials could rise or fall further in the future depending on the outcome of a few key events. Notably, the Russia-Ukraine war, his tariffs, and his actions against the current economic crisis are all likely to have a direct impact on the mood of this age group.
Since millennials are often more interested in issues that directly affect their lives, changes in these circumstances could have a significant impact on their political support. Therefore, whether Trump’s future approval rating remains stable or changes will be determined by the broader outcomes of these issues.
